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gli
gli

For I Bonds. February is the fifth month of a six-month string that will determine the I Bond’s new inflation-adjusted variable rate. Through the five months, inflation has run at 1.36%, which would translate to a variable rate of 2.72%. One month remains, so it looks like the new variable rate should fall into a range of about 3.2% to 3.5%, down substantially from the current 6.48%. The I Bond’s fixed rate will also be reset May 1, but the outlook for that reset is high uncertain, given the volatility of real yields over the last week. – Source TIpswatch.

gli
gli
Eric

I saw somewhere else that the latest figures for CPI came to around 6%. Why is the rate that you mentioned less than half of that?

storm

6% is the year-over-year rate of inflation. The I Bond rate is determined by the monthly rate of inflation for each month from October to March and then multiplied by 2 (annualized).

Sunshine
Sunshine

so from May, 2023 onward.. the rate should be at least 6%?

Snowbird
Snowbird

Probably not. Using the month over month numbers, since October, inflation has been 1.36% which would translate to a 2.72% rate. There’s still one month to go, so I suspect it will be less than 4%. See my explanation of the calculation here. https://www.doctorofcredit.com/u-s-treasury-i-bonds-faq-when-to-buy-10000-i-bonds-6-48-9-62-and-more/#comment-1576753

Eric

So that implies that inflation is slowing down a lot. Why is the Fed still expected to raise interest rates a lot more?

arihalli
arihalli

We don’t know if they will raise interest rates a lot more. They may only raise them a quarter, or, pause (because of the banking problems). They can either tackle the banking problem or the inflation problem. I think they are ill-equipped to do either anyways.

Cheryl
Cheryl

arihalli will there be anarchy next in the economy or a depression? What do you think will happen this year and next year?

arihalli
arihalli

Cheryl, they will do what they always do, they’ll print money to solve the problem. JMO

Cheryl
Cheryl

arihalli won’t that make inflation even worse?

arihalli
arihalli

YUP, but thats how they solve monetary problems.

Eric

I should have been more clear. I meant before the banks failed recently there was talk that the Fed would raise rates over 6%. I am asking why was that the case if the inflation rate has slowed down.

storm

In theory, the central bank has to raise interest rates to equal or greater than the rate of inflation to control inflation. Inflation is already trending down, so there is some debate whether interest rates need to be raised any more. Further hikes could trigger higher unemployment and a recession.

favo
favo

How are taxes reported on I-bond? I purchased some I-bond last year, but haven’t received 1099 INT yet, not sure whether it was lost in the mailing process or whether it wasn’t issued…

Ryan Goldstein

I bond interest is tax-deferred until redeemed (up to 30 years, the bond duration).

Penny

You won’t get a form till you redeem them.

However, you can pay taxes each year on them (report them manually and keep track) or defer to when you redeem the bond. All info can be found here https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/tax-information-ee-i-bonds/

mangorunner
mangorunner

Lots more info on paying interest annually here, too:

I-Bonds Tax Treatment – Optional: Report Interest Every Year
https://thefinancebuff.com/i-bonds-taxes-simple-default.html#htoc-optional-report-interest-every-year

Similar to Doctor of Credit, there is much value in the Comments, too.
favo Penny

favo
favo

Ryan Goldstein Penny mangorunner Thanks so much guys! Really appreciate it!

J2
J2

Don’t do it. Defeats one of the main advantages to i bonds.

gli
gli

January inflation came in pretty hot at 0.8 so back up to a 1.6% interest rate + any fixed rate with two months of reporting left to go. https://tipswatch.com/tracking-inflation-and-i-bonds/

Sunshine
Sunshine

i don’t know how it’s calculated.. so based on that what will be the next projected rate if you were to guess? gli

gli
gli

Unknown two month’s inflation results. right now it is 1.6% + a potential fixed rate of ? We shall know in April after that CPI hits. Could be anywhere from 1.5% to 4%

gli
gli

I’ll post this comment from Marc because it is as good as any: “If we extrapolate the next two months at the same 0.8%, that would put the May 1 annualized inflation rate for I Bonds at 4.8% (2.4%x2). That probably the high end of the range.

– If it’s half that at 0.4% each, it would be 3.2% (1.6%x2).

– if it’s one quarter of that, it would be 2.4% (1.2%x2).

Using the middle of those three scenarios, the one year annualized rate for buying an I Bond before May 1 would be 5.045% ((6.89%+3.2%)/2).”

mangorunner
mangorunner

Sunshine, Keep an eye on David Enna’s column. He is the best-of-the-best, when it comes to I-bonds:
https://tipswatch.com/

Sunshine
Sunshine

I have read some comments where people say they’re waiting until April to see what the rate will be for the next six months from May onward.. but wouldn’t it be better to invest the 10k now to get the 6.82% and get the 12 month mandatory holding time over with sooner?

just curious on thoughts

storm

Assuming inflation continues to trend downward, the interest earned on I Bonds would not be competitive. $10k would earn 6.89% the first 6 months, and only the fixed rate (.4%) the second 6 months. That would be about 3.6% interest by my math. Several good high yield savings accounts are paying ~4.25%, and we are starting to see 5% CDs in the 15-18 month range. If inflation creeps upward in the next 3 months, I Bonds might have a chance to outperform, but the Fed would probably continue to raise rates pushing HYSA and CDs rates higher. That’s my 2 cents.

laura
laura

Hi Storm,
Agree with all you say.
I am still ‘interested’ in the IBOND, however.
1) I don’t trust the gov’t stats that inflation is going down this fast.
2) More significantly, if there is powerful damage to the economy, d/t the interest rate jumps, then i BELIEVE, we can EXPECT to see the Fed reverse course , and start to QE (or print money) into the economy to save it. They MAY not. But powerful political pressure will be upon them to reverse. And if they do, then they will re-charge inflation into the economy.
3) The Fed appears to be ending inflation , on the backs of ‘labor’. And i don’t think it works. Labor needs $ to purchase consumables.
4) Until such time, as Congress ends reckless spending and borrowing, and attempts to provide REAL growth into the economy, i think inflation will increase.

gli
gli

All of these things are true but remember that the Ibond rate is compared to last year’s monthly numbers etc… it has to inflate even more than the really high rate from last December and January etc… Inflation is still going up – just not a much as last year’s comparable month.. that’s how this is calculated.

MC
MC

Happy CPI Day!
In line with consensus estimate, -0.31% for December, 6.5% for the year, I-bond variable rate now calculates slightly negative but kneecapped at 0% with three months to go…

gli
gli

Good exit point for those who are in at the higher rates now – to exit with 3 months of 0% interest lost (I mean opportunity cost but..) Was a good run.

Penny

For those of ya’ll who specified last year you pre-paid additional taxes and to use the refund to buy additional bonds and used OLT to file taxes, I searched the comments and noticed some people had issues (e.g. amount wasn’t right), was it resolved at the end of the day? Currently looking at options on filing my taxes before I do the prepaid option.
Last year, I reported FreetaxUSA did not support ibonds purchases with refunds

Raymond
Raymond

Chuck William Charles Can you bump this post? I guess with 6.82% it’s still worth it compared to ~4% on 1 mo t-bills or 4.4% on sallie mae CDs.

mangorunner
mangorunner

Worth the read:
“I Bonds: A not-so-simple buying guide for 2023”
https://tipswatch.com/2023/01/03/i-bonds-a-not-so-simple-buying-guide-for-2023/

fdic
fdic

Chuck

Looks like somethin happened to the latest thread. Cant access it any more

https://www.doctorofcredit.com/u-s-treasury-i-bonds-faq-when-to-buy-10000-i-bonds-6-48-9-62-and-more/

404 error: Page not found
It seems that you got lost, but we are here to help

Cohmac
Cohmac

Heads up, the Treasury Direct website is having all kinds of problems apparently due to high demand (and the fact that it must be running on a 20 year old PC in the corner??). Getting all kinds of errors just trying to login. Hopefully the load lightens up at some point in the next 24 hours.

“We are currently experiencing unprecedented requests for new accounts and purchases of I Bonds. Due to these volumes, we cannot guarantee customers will be able to complete a purchase by the October 28th deadline for the current rate. Our agents are working to help customers who need assistance as quickly as possible.”

gli
gli

and this.. is why we do not wait until the end of the month of interest rate lock-in deadline days to complete our transactions folks. Good heads up!

jimmy
jimmy

If a family member gifts me an i-bond before Oct 31 2022, what rate do I lock in?

Original Jack
Original Jack

The rate was determined when it was issued not the gifting date.

There’s no lock in rate. It changes every six months.

jimmy
jimmy

Original Jack Got it, but doesn’t it accrue interest even if its its in a holding period? If so, what would it be ?

Original Jack
Original Jack

It should be earning the same as if bought into an account or in a gift box.

Alex_the_Churner 🔗

9.62% for six months