The Offer
Direct link to offer (our affiliate link, we don’t receive anything if you sign up. The full commission is directly donated to our charity partner)
- Kalshi is currently offering two bonuses for new users:
- $25 bonus after trading $50 in perpetuals
- Up to $500 when you trade $50+ on prediction markets (should see an in app banner for this after signing up, you might not see it if they are a/b testing but you’ll still be eligible if you don’t)
The Fine Print
- Prediction market up to $500 probability:
| Bonus | Reported probability |
|---|---|
| $15 | 70% |
| $35 | 24% |
| $75 | 5% |
| $100 | 0.65% |
| $500 | 0.35% |
Our Verdict
Expected value from the prediction market up to $500 is $25.05. Perpetuals let you trade on whether the price of a specific cryptocurrency are going up or down, more information here. As mentioned at the top of the post we don’t receive any commission for this, Kalshi will donate directly to our charity partner (we never even receive funds as they handle the donation directly). They will donate the following amounts when the requirements are reached:
- $100 donation for trading $50+ on perpetuals
- $50 donation for trading $50+ on prediction markets
It is worth noting that some shopping portals are offering bigger sign up bonuses for new users (e.g gemsloot is $40 and Upromise is $36) so if you don’t care about the donation angle at all then those are better deals. Obviously there is risk involved here, so don’t sign up if you’re susceptible to that sort of thing.
