We’ve been reporting on the twice-per-year I Bond rate releases. Via Tipswatch, the new rate for May 2025 through October 2025 is estimated to be 3.98%, based on inflation reports. This comprises of 2.88% variable rate and 1.10% fixed rate.
I Bonds May – Oct. 2025
What this means:
- If you already own I Bonds and keep them, you’ll get just 2.88% interest rate for the six month rate period of May 2025 through October 2025 (plus whatever your fixed rate is from a previous buy, which for some people is zero).
- If you buy new I Bonds between May 1, 2025 and October 31, 2025, you’ll likely get around 3.98% for the first six months (2.88% variable + 1.10% fixed). After the six months is over, you’ll get the 1.10% fixed rate added to whatever the future variable rates are at the time.
For comparison sake: the current rate which runs October 2024 through April 2025 is 3.11% – that comes from a 1.20% fixed rate and 1.91% variable rate.
Our Verdict
Someone looking to hold longer term would want to buy before the end of April and lock in the better 1.20% fixed rate (versus the upcoming 1.10% fixed rate). Someone looking shorter term might want to skip the 3.11% which isn’t competitive and buy in on the 3.98% rate in May.
Don’t forget about the 3-month penalty for those who withdraw in less than 5 years. While 3.98% isn’t a bad rate currently – especially given the state tax exemption on I Bonds and treasuries – if you lose a chunk of it to the 3-month penalty the rate isn’t as interesting.
List of Past I-Bonds Rates
For context, here is a review of past I Bond rates that many of us bought into:
- May 2021 through October 2021 – 3.54% (0% fixed rate)
- November 2021 through April 2022 – 7.12% (0% fixed rate)
- May 2022 through October 2022 – 9.62% (0% fixed rate)
- November 2022 through April 2023 – 6.89% (Variable 6.49% + Fixed .40%)
- May 2023 through October 2023 – 4.30% (Variable 3.40% + Fixed .90%)
- November 2023 through April 2024 – 5.27% (Variable 3.97% + Fixed 1.30%)
- May 2023 through October 2024 – 4.28% (Variable 2.98% + Fixed 1.30%)
- November 2024 through April 2025 – 3.11% (Variable 1.91% + Fixed 1.20%)
- (estimated) May 2025 through October 2025 – 3.98% (Variable 2.88% + Fixed 1.1%)
The new fixed rate is confirmed to be 1.10%.
https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/
One more run at the whole interest rate risk thing, I-bonds vs. TIPS, using some real numbers.
Let’s say that in April 2023, you bought (a) $1000 of I-bonds, and (b) $1000 of 5yr TIPS [CUSIP 91282CGW5] at auction. TIPS are issued at a discount, so your actual investment was for this issue is $999.04.
Fast forward to April 2025 (2 yrs later), and you want to liquidate both investments. When you redeem the I-bonds, you will get $994.25 (face less 3mo interest at the current composite rate of 2.30%). When you sell the TIPS — you can’t redeem them, of course — based on current quotes on Schwab you will get $995.54.
So, let’s see, looking at principal alone, you lost (a) $5.75 on the I-bonds, and (b) $3.50 on the TIPS. Personally, I wouldn’t call the delta material.
You’ll have to take my word that I picked this example at random, I’d be interested in any & all examples showing different results, which I’m sure exist. And, of course, please check my math on this one.
https://tipswatch.com/2025/04/07/a-5-year-tips-is-maturing-april-15-how-did-it-do-as-an-investment/
OK, so that’s an example of an I-bond outperforming a comparable TIPS by about 50 basis points, or about $5 based on my $1,000 example. Material or not?
$5/1k/year = ~$250 for 10k (since we’re talking I-bonds) over 5 years (since we’re talking 5-year tips held to maturity). Up to the individual whether it is “Material or not?” despite your spin I guess…
A little less than one dollar per week. You tell me.
How many hot dogs is that worth?
I don’t know. What I do know is: it’s not material.
Buy in the last few days of a month then sell in the first few days of a month and that 3 month penalty is really just a one month penalty 😉
No, because you’re still giving up 3 months of interest vs not selling early.
You’re both wrong, only the purchase month can be double-dipped so the penalty can be reduced to just 2 months at best.
So, once you have held the bonds for a few months, you forfeit the most recent 3 months interest, right?
You cannot sell before 1 year. Years 1-5, you forfeit the last 3 months interest. After 5 years, no penalty. It matures in 20 years, but you can hold it to 30 years I believe.
Is China, like, going to screw us on bonds?
Somebody already is…China, Japan, or Europe, take your pick.
Government will never pay you more then what they inflate away so this is always a money loss situation. The government bond website is also a massive PITA to deal with.
People may want to go over to Bogleheads forum and read the discussion about the folks that will be handling all customer service issues for iBonds among other things at Treasury Direct.
If you are really in to “inflation protected” bonds, then you should consider TIPS as alternative to I-bonds. The only material difference is deferred federal taxation of the latter.*. With TIPS, purchases are effectively unlimited, and you can invest in them via ETFs, including fixed duration ETFs like ones offered by iShares.
* Before someone gets excited about fluctuating principal on TIPS, that’s just math. Yield is effectively similar.
Thats just wrong to list that as the only material difference. You are completely glossing over the interest rate risk and the fact that liquidating them requires selling on the open market. They can also lose value to deflation if that were to happen.
“They can also lose value to deflation if that were to happen.” Original principal is guaranteed upon maturity, no matter interim adjustments. Look it up.
Liquidating via open market != maturity. Look it up.
Original principal, great.. sorry maybe I should have said that deflation can erode the built-up principal adjustments. If the principal goes up 500 bucks and then deflation hits, the principal goes down… not less than the original ‘par value’.
This does not happen with an IBond, even if deflation occurs the worst that happens is the IBond goes to a 0% rate for a period, you don’t lose what you had previously gained.
the fund might if they decide to keep to maturity but a bond funds maturity is never ending so its not like you put 10k and if rates spike you can hold to get your money back
Unless you invest in a fixed-duration bond fund, like the iShares iBonds ETFs. Each ETF holds bonds that mature in the same year, so you effectively lock in the yield.
I disagree. Interest rate risk for bonds that trade on the secondary market is real. If you buy TIPS and interest rates go up, you lose money—whether that’s when you sell or in opportunity cost for holding to maturity. I-bonds don’t trade on the secondary market and are redeemable at face value by the government (subject to holding period requirement and 3-month interest penalty), so they don’t have that issue.
But the other benefits you list are true. And being able to buy and hold in a brokerage account instead of the stupid treasurydirect website is a huge plus.
If you hold to maturity there’s no more opportunity risk to holding TIPS vs iBonds in an increasing rate environment. Definitely agree with you if you sell before maturity on the secondary market. There are many CDs that trade on a secondary market, that doesn’t make them any riskier or work any differently if you hold them to maturity. If anything, the ability to sell TIPS on a secondary market is only a potential upside if rates fall quickly.
It’s hard to get excited when you can only buy $10K in iBonds as a single person.
$10k is more than the average person can afford to buy every year
That’s very true but most readers on this site don’t think that way. Check out the USB Smartly posts for examples of what I mean.
we arent average here
Plus an additional $10k with a second account as a sole proprietor.
Individual, EIN and a Trust can be funded each at 10k. “You may also register the bond in the name of a trust or estate. An electronic bond in TreasuryDirect also can be in the name of a corporation, partnership, or other entity.” https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/buy-a-bond/
dont ever buy a bond fund – buy the specific bonds
Why is that?
Also, is that advice for all types of bonds (I-Bonds, muni bonds, etc) or only for certain types of bonds?
I think it is also worth discussing about how you can buy essentially unlimited amount via giftbox loophole in 2P mode.
As you may know: A lot of people think the gift-box program, at least in its current form, is on life support.
Right, that just means when it’s pulled you will be able to deliver everything at once. Like what happened last year when they sent an e-mail urging everyone to deliver giftbox without limitations.
You can buy TIPS, which are similar but without any three month penalty. Five year TIPS currently pay 1.72% plus inflation. You can buy them in the regular auctions or you can buy them second-hand from your broker’s bond page. Watch out for high spreads if the later.
Rates:
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025
The two key differences are that (1) if we experience any deflation over a six month period, the I bonds will not deflate while the TIPS will and (2) the I bonds can be redeemed for up to 30 years, while the TIPS have a fixed maturity. Maybe those things are worth the 0.5-0.6% spread, maybe not.
Is there a chart somewhere with all of the recent TIPS rates? Is 1.72% high?
Tipswatch periodically does a summary of the TIPS market. This 5 year one is from December, perhaps he’s done a more recent one. I saw one for 10 year TIPS in March. My understanding is both 5 & 10 year have been above 2% in recent months but 1.7% is still decent.
https://tipswatch.com/2024/12/19/weak-demand-results-in-real-yield-of-2-121-for-5-year-tips-reopening-auction/
I’m not clear how to read the charts – is that the fixed rate only or the inflation rate only or the combination of the two?
So to be clear: if I bought a 5 year on April 3rd then in 5 years I’d get 1.2020% compounded plus the rate of inflation compounded; if I bought a 5 year today then in 5 years I’d get 1.8283% compounded, plus the rate of inflation compounded. Do I have it right?
Yes you are right. TIPS pay the principal times the index ratio at maturity. The “real yield” is the percentage you get above inflation when you buy it at market prices. So you would pay a premium or discount depending on the coupon rate of the TIP.
Hey Chuck!
You can see the historical rates on that treasury.gov link, and you can select previous years at the top. These are the “fixed” rates. They are determined by the market rather than being set by the treasury, which is why they bounce around from day to day based on the price at which the bonds trade.
I should note also that I bonds allow you to defer the taxes on the gains until redeemed, up to 30 years later. TIPS do not have that feature. Another thing that may make the spread worth it for some.
If you hold TIPS to maturity you are also protected from any deflation.
Based on comments, I feel like a lot of people are missing what makes these interesting right now is the fixed rate that is very high (historically) and that you keep as long as you hold onto the bonds. If you are looking short (6-12 months) term then you of course have better options. If you are looking longer term (1+ years) and believe that inflation will go up in the next months/years these will make a lot more sense.
I’m not an economist, nor a prophet, but given the tariff talks and their potential implications on inflation, I’m personally going to take a flyer on these, especially since I have enough spare cash to lock $10k for 1+ years. In the worst case, I have the equivalent of a 1-year CD with a suboptimal, but not outrageously low, rate.
Yes, here’s a great comment looking at historical fixed rates:
#1719856
The tipswatch guy is rarely wrong with his prediction, so if he thinks it’s going down to 1.1% I’ll believe it.
Thank you, it took some time to put together the fixed rate analysis, glad to see people found it useful 🙂
Yup, appreciate the time and effort you made to come up with that! Convinced me to lock in some 1.3%ers.
What you’re missing is that trump wont hesitate to push people at BLS to show lower CPI numbers if it 1) saves money, 2) makes him look better.
Is that why so many people were surprised by the CPI print? lol
Uh… the economic data that came out of the Biden administration was so rigged that Wall Street started to question it. Why? Because the initial headline number looked good and received fanfare, then months later the revised data always looked worse, often much worse, but would receive little airtime.
Will Trump do the same? Dunno, but we will find out. If you are going to bash Trump, please have balanced takes on what other administrations have done as well.
I have always thought he’d cook the data and that it can’t be trusted while he is in office.