The Offer
No direct link to offer, should show up in app. Link to terms
- Coinbase is offering a prediction markets bonus. Each trade must be $10+ and you receive a reward at 5, 10, 15 & 20 qualifying trades. Reward probability is as follows:
- 68.00% probability: $4.15; $8.30; $12.45; $16.60
- 13.00% probability: $4.75; $9.50; $14.25; $19.00
- 6.00% probability: $5.75; $11.50; $17.25; $23.00
- 4.00% probability: $6.75; $13.50; $20.25; $27.00
- 3.00% probability: $7.75; $15.50; $23.25; $31.00
- 2.00% probability: $8.75; $17.50; $26.25; $35.00
- 1.50% probability: $10.00; $20.00; $30.00; $40.00
- 1.00% probability: $12.50; $25.00; $37.50; $50.00
- 0.75% probability: $16.00; $32.00; $48.00; $64.00
- 0.75% probability: $20.00; $40.00; $60.00; $80.00
The Fine Print
-
“Promotion Period” means each weekly period beginning at 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time (“PT”) on Tuesday and ending at 8:59 a.m. PT on the following Tuesday, unless otherwise stated by CFM. The first Promotion Period begins at 9:00 a.m. PT on September 8, 2026, and the final Promotion Period ends at 8:59 a.m. PT on January 12, 2027. The Incentive is expected to run for eighteen (18) weekly Promotion Periods unless modified, suspended, or canceled by CFM.
-
“Qualifying Trade” means one (1) eligible trade in a U.S. professional football league contract or a college football contract completed during the applicable Promotion Period for at least $10.00 USD and otherwise meeting CFM’s eligibility requirements for this Incentive.
-
“Rebate” (also referred to as a “Reward” for purposes of these Terms and marketing materials) means the USDC rebate, if any, credited to an eligible user who satisfies the applicable requirements of this Incentive. Rebates are promotional rebates on trading activity in eligible football prediction markets, funded by Coinbase Financial Markets and paid in USDC.
Our Verdict
Expected value is $5 for each reward, nice thing about this is that there is no qualify for the odds so you can trade on markets that have a high probability of occurring. Obviously still a lot of risk involved, especially if you have issues with gambling so only do these sorts of deals if you can complete them without actually gambling (e.g matched pairs across two sites or accounts).
Hat tip to Joshua M
