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Zanzi
Zanzi (@guest_1764057)
December 23, 2023 11:22

Perhaps-helpful idea #2: EconForecasting maintains a treasury yield rate forecasting tool that is easy to use, and I have found it to be pretty accurate: https://econforecasting.com/forecast-treasury-curve

I find it particularly helpful when deciding whether and how to ladder (which durations of treasuries, e.g. 4 weeks, 8 weeks). You can easily see the yield curve for today, historical values, and projections for future dates–nice interactive visuals AND charts. 🙂

Zanzi
Zanzi (@guest_1764055)
December 23, 2023 11:16

Perhaps-helpful idea #1: For the last ~2 years I have been using T-bills to arbitrage the 0% promotional rates that sometimes come with sign up bonuses. That is, I make the minimum payments on the 0% cards, buy T-bills for the difference of the monthly balance, and then payoff the cards in full when the T-bills mature and before the promotional rate ends. Totaled a little over $500 in what I think of as an “additional bonus” in 2023.

I prefer going through Treasury Direct for this purpose, because 1) it removes interest rate risk at sale/maturity (which I am more sensitive to when arbitraging than investing) and 2) paying a brokerage fee would reduce the “bonus” 🙂

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1736634)
November 14, 2023 11:26

sg77,

I just logged into my destination account for my 2nd T-Bill purchase. The below quoted transaction is shown for the date of 11.8.23. That is date that I initiated the purchase on TD’s website. BTW, the Xs were different number sequences.

I logged into my destination account for my 1st T-Bill purchase and no such “Comment” showed up there at any point.

Have you ever received this “Comment” in any of your destination accounts? Don’t you think it’s odd that they use the words “Withdrawal Prenotification” instead of “Deposit Prenotification”? I guess they mean it as a withdrawal from TD but had I seen this sooner, I would have been really nervous about where the withdrawal was going to be made.

BTW, the reason I wasn’t nervous is I just happened to check my “Source of Funds” account earlier this morning and saw that the funds were removed from there this morning.

“ACH Comment / TREASURY DIRECT XXX TREAS DRCT XXX DBT NEW TD PURCHASE XXX: Withdrawal Prenotification Received”

Eric
Eric (@guest_1737281)
November 15, 2023 09:29

sg77,

Yesterday, when I made this comment tagging wasn’t working. I figured I would tag you now so you will definitely see it.

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1737459)
November 15, 2023 13:02

Eric 🔗 I haven’t seen that before. Though, I don’t know if my bank accounts would even show prenotifications to me.

Eric
Eric (@guest_1737738)
November 15, 2023 21:12

It’s interesting to find out that TD sends this notification to the destination accounts. You are probably right that most just don’t bother to share that information with us.

Aaron M
Aaron M (@guest_1720357)
October 21, 2023 16:41

Wow, the 20-year T-bond auctioned this week at price of $89.352074 per $100, yielding 5.245% after an interest rate of 4.375% (paid every 6 months).

BVA
BVA (@guest_1659041)
July 24, 2023 11:48

 Chuck
“We’ll usually have a good estimation in advance of the expected sale rate.”

How do you estimate the rates of upcoming bonds? I would like to learn that before venturing ahead. Please help.

jd
jd (@guest_1659119)
July 24, 2023 13:57
Crypsis
Crypsis (@guest_1663345)
July 31, 2023 16:25
  jd

Thank you for the helpful link, jd!

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1647172)
July 4, 2023 16:49

Something that surprised me about reinvestment of a T-bill on TreasuryDirect: they sent the difference between the face value and the discounted price of the new T-bill to my Primary Bank account (which is different than the source & destination banks I specified when buying the bill). e.g., if I bought a $1000 T-bill with money from bank A, destination bank B, set to reinvest; on the maturity date, the discounted price for the next issue of the T-bill is $996, and $4 is sent to bank C which was set as my Primary Bank.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/help/treasurydirect-help/user-guide/211-220/#216 has this explanation: “You may also owe additional funds if accrued interest is being charged, or backup withholding affected the amount of the maturing proceeds. If additional funds are due upon reinvestment, the funds will be debited from your primary bank, unless the original security associated with the reinvestment was purchased May 15, 2010, or after, with C of I funds. In this case, your C of I will be debited. Any refund due as a result of the reinvestment will be credited in the same manner. “

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1726209)
October 30, 2023 11:05

sg77,

I am considering buying a 4 week TBill on TreasuryDirect this week. The next one available has an “Auction Date” of 11.2.23 and an “Issue Date” of 11.7.23. If I submit the purchase today, will the funds be removed from my external account on 10.31.23 (tomorrow), on 11.2.23 (Auction Date), 11.7.23 (Issue Date) or some other date? If the answer is tomorrow, can I wait until Wednesday or Thursday to submit this to get an extra 2 or 3 days of interest?

Are you saying in your example that if I put in a purchase price of $1000 only $996 will be removed from my account on the date you answered in my previous question?

Is there a way to change the “Maturity Payment Destination” account a couple of weeks after the purchase or is that locked in? If I am unsure where I want the funds to go (ie I don’t know which bank I will need it for a bonus), should I select “Zero-Percent C of I”? If I select that, do the funds end up in the same place that my I-Bonds ended up when I redeemed them?

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1726361)
October 30, 2023 15:22

Eric 🔗 in my experience, for T-bills, the withdrawal came out of my external bank on the Issue Date. The day you submit it shouldn’t make a difference.

Yes, only $996 would be taken from your external account (the specific amount depends on the rate; you’d get back $1000 when it matures).

You can edit the payment destination after the purchase (you can also change the number of reinvestments after the purchase). I’ve never tried redeeming into C of I; I’ve just selected a bank (for both T-bills and I-bonds), which can be changed later; but selecting C of I first would probably also work. C of I is like a bank account held internally at TreasuryDirect.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1726440)
October 30, 2023 17:21

Thank you for the responses.

In that scenario, you would receive $4 in the “Primary” account and $996 in the “Destination” account, correct?

I guess choosing C of I would only be valuable if you wanted to send the funds to multiple accounts once it matures.

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1726462)
October 30, 2023 17:52

If you’re not doing reinvestment, then when the T-bill matures, the whole $1000 would be sent to your destination account. The scenario where the Primary Bank got $4 was just when I had enabled automatic reinvestment.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1727190)
October 31, 2023 15:27

What is the benefit to setting it to reinvest? Aren’t you better off letting it mature and then moving it the best current rate T-Bill or out of TreasuryDirect entirely if nothing is enticing?

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1727215)
October 31, 2023 15:48

Mainly convenience. It gets whatever the new rate is at the next auction of the same duration T-bill. That’ll likely be better than my savings accounts. If I eventually want to withdraw the money, I can edit it to turn off reinvestment.

Also I’m not sure how the timing works if you manually buy different T-bills. If the auctions are on a different schedule, then maybe there’d be some days in between where you get no interest (though if the destination is an external bank that pays interest maybe you won’t really miss out). If you want a T-bill with different duration and the issue date is the same day as the maturity date of your existing T-bill, are you able to use those funds immediately? I’ve never tried it. With reinvestment the money goes immediately into the next T-bill.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1727281)
October 31, 2023 17:01

sg77,

If you end up being correct that the money doesn’t get taken out until the issue date (11.7.23), I think I would just always open a new T-Bill rather than ever reinvest.

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1727368)
October 31, 2023 19:00

When I first bought T-bills, I bought a bunch of different durations, and they matured on different days. It was a mess to keep track of and annoying to keep logging in to buy another.

Now I just have a chunk of money that reinvests in 4-week T-bills, another chunk that reinvests in 13-week T-bills, etc, and I don’t need to do anything else.

But there’s probably other ways of keeping it simple, like if you just have one big chunk of money in a single T-bill. Or if you set up a more structured pattern, like maturing on the same day every week.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1732223)
November 7, 2023 19:55

sg77,

You were correct as the money was removed today. I am interested in buying another T-Bill for Thursday’s auction.

Do you happen to know if I need to make the purchase by tomorrow for it go through or if I can still make the purchase on Thursday (11.9.23)?

If the latter, what time is the deadline on Thursday for me to make the purchase of the T-Bill?

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1732278)
November 7, 2023 21:30

I’ve never tried submitting a purchase on the same day as the auction. In my quick web search, I see an article saying “Noncompetitive bids are limited to $5 million and are usually due before 12:00 noon (ET) on the day of an auction.” But in practice I don’t know if that’s the actual cutoff time for TreasuryDirect and/or other brokerages.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1733854)
November 9, 2023 15:35

I meant to log into my TD account this morning to see if it was still available. Unfortunately, I got sidetracked with other things and wasn’t able to login until a few minutes ago.

Anyway, not surprisingly, the 11.9.23 auction is no longer available. I still don’t know if 12 PM is the correct cut-off but it’s definitely safer to do the day before regardless.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1732803)
November 8, 2023 14:36

sg77,

In that case, I will initiate the purchase today. I might check tomorrow to see if it’s still available so I will know for the future.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1732224)
November 7, 2023 19:58

sg77,

Do you what “High Rate” means at the link below?

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1732265)
November 7, 2023 21:20

Search for “high rate” in the comments here to see my old comment about it (but basically I would ignore high rate and just look at investment rate).

JD
JD (@guest_1748368)
November 30, 2023 11:35

sg77
Looking at the schedule, 4-week bills normally auction every Thursday, and issue and mature on Tuesdays. Does that mean the funds for a reinvestment will sit in the CofI for a whole week? Or do they mature/reinvest on the same day? Thats like a 20% haircut on your average 4-week rates if they sit idle for a week, and 7% on the 13-weeks…seems a high price to pay to avoid logging in once or twice a month…

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1748472)
November 30, 2023 14:47
  JD

The money is reinvested into the new issue T-bill on the same day that the previous one matured. (That’s when using Treasurydirect, and I heard that Fidelity is the same but Schwab has a 1 week delay).

JD
JD (@guest_1748643)
November 30, 2023 17:59

Nice, so no days lost… thanks for the info!

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1726391)
October 30, 2023 16:01

Also, when a T-bill matures, I actually see the deposit in my destination bank on the day before the maturity date (this might depend on how fast your bank posts direct deposits). I’m not sure when the cutoff date is for changing the destination bank.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1726446)
October 30, 2023 17:26

So instead of losing about a week of interest I will possibly gain 1 day of interest? Have you ever found the system make a mistake when you changed the destination account after purchase?

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1726461)
October 30, 2023 17:50

Yeah I think you potentially double dip interest on 1 day if the destination is an external bank. I’ve never actually tried changing the destination after purchase, except that I tried it to see that it’s possible, and then I immediately changed it back.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1751745)
December 5, 2023 14:50

sg77,

The funds from the 1st T-Bill that I purchased reached my destination account today so it did not arrive 1 day early. It’s possible that all of the destination accounts that you’ve used previously allow “early DD” and the account that I used doesn’t.

Also, I changed my destination account only about a week before maturity and the funds reached the correct account. I’m letting you know because you earlier wrote that you never actually tried this.

BTW, did you receive a “New Reply” email in addition to the “New Comment” email for this comment that I made? I tagged you in case you don’t receive the “New Reply” emails since the website was updated.

I never receive them anymore. mangorunner has let me know that they also do not receive those. 007 and Will said that they do receive them. Therefore, I have no idea if I am in the minority or the majority related to this.

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1751748)
December 5, 2023 14:54

I got a “New Reply” email, and a “You have been mentioned” email. I don’t usually subscribe to a page (which I guess would give the “New Comment” email); I just click the bell icon to be notified of replies to my comments. So I think it’s working as expected for me.

JD
JD (@guest_1751779)
December 5, 2023 15:19

Can you guys share which banks you used that did/didn’t post the deposit early?

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1751822)
December 5, 2023 16:19
  JD

SoFi is where I got it 1 day early.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1752091)
December 5, 2023 22:03
  JD

Amex did not post it 1 day early.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1752089)
December 5, 2023 22:02

sg77,

I realized after I sent that comment that your old comment was from back in October so it’s not a good DP.

Did you receive a “New Reply” email for this comment?

sg77
sg77 (@guest_1752097)
December 5, 2023 22:11

yup

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1752118)
December 5, 2023 22:29

 William Charles,

In the other post, you told me to reach out to some guy to troubleshoot why I am not receiving the “New Reply” emails. They never replied to my comment. Please advise how I can get in touch with them.

William Charles
Admin
December 6, 2023 16:09

The plugin is called wpdiscuz, should be able to send an email or post in the forums. Like I said I actually posted the same question to them and then they tried to troubleshoot it and it worked fine for them (and also for me). Before doing that i’d recommend trying with a completely different browser/e-mail combo to see if that resolves the issue as it only seems to be affecting a small amount of people. I assume it has something to do with browser plugins and/or your cache settings.

Eric 🔗
Eric 🔗 (@guest_1760774)
December 18, 2023 18:06

I just sent them an email. Hopefully I will hear back from them.

John
John (@guest_1615351)
May 9, 2023 22:08

The US government defaulting seems like a very real possibility in the near future. In such a catastrophic event, what would happen to Treasury bills, notes and bonds that mature in the coming month? Would the buyer of treasuries just be out of luck and not receive their principle amount loaned out back? Just the thought of that is depressing. The risk seems pretty high right now. I’d much feel safer putting my money in a high yield savings account instead. Turbulent times the market has seen in the past 5 years. Maybe one day I’ll be able to retire and not stress about my finances anymore..

Novacat05
Novacat05 (@guest_1615610)
May 10, 2023 08:40

Uncharted territory for sure. Some people think that they would have to prioritize, and you have to pay off debt first, which would include treasuries.

Worst case scenario, payment might be delayed, it’s not like they are going to just not pay out those billions/trillions of treasuries. If it got to that point, something would be done in a crisis situation, even kicking the can. Neither side wants to give in until absolutely necessary and lose bargaining power. Just like any standoff over a contract/labor dispute.

Dan
Dan (@guest_1616556)
May 11, 2023 15:02

If payment is delayed you are losing out on opportunity cost of the principle amount which could’ve been invested elsewhere until whenever the government decides to pay back the loan. That’s not nothing.

jd
jd (@guest_1615640)
May 10, 2023 09:33

there’s no way they won’t pay those, think of all the “too big to fail” institutions holding them…
first step would probably be a government shutdown and suspension of payments to all the civilians, contractors, soldiers, boomers, and sick people depending on that money, lol

Xa9en
Xa9en (@guest_1613783)
May 7, 2023 13:33

TreasuryDirect removed the virtual keyboard “to improve the customer experience” and you can now just paste your password

Novacat05
Novacat05 (@guest_1614323)
May 8, 2023 15:04

It also says two-factor authentication now required every time, and you cannot register/save your computer. Codes are valid for 24 hours instead of 15 minutes.

Guess that’s what we get for them removing the virtual keyboard…

Xa9en
Xa9en (@guest_1615629)
May 10, 2023 09:13

Didn’t realize it was going to be every time, ugh. Typical give with one hand, take with the other.

Freya
Freya (@guest_1613435)
May 6, 2023 16:49

I’m new to treasuries. Hoping some can answer my questions about treasury bills.

Let’s say I want to buy a 4 week treasury bill using my Wells Fargo brokerage account, how long from the time I place the order will my account reflect that I own the 4 week treasury bill? Like when does the first day of that 4 week contract start? Is it the same day of the order? Like how long does an order take? Would my account value show $0 at any point while waiting for the order to complete?

What happens in the event my bank, which I’ve bought the treasury bills in, goes bankrupt? Will the US government give me back my money for the treasury bills or did I just lose all the treasury bills I had purchased in that bank’s brokerage? Is there a max limit like 250k that’s insured? Or are all amounts backed by the full faith of the government?

What happens if the 4 week treasury bill is higher the next week than the week that I purchased it? Does it mean my account value will then fluctuate like a stock price? Or is my account value guaranteed to never be lower than the price I paid for the treasury?

Thanks all

Novacat05
Novacat05 (@guest_1614334)
May 8, 2023 15:24

Freya I’m no expert but I’ve read up on them over the last few weeks and bought some through TD: Every treasury auction lists an “effective date”, that is when the clock starts and that is the effective date you “own” it. You have to have your bid submitted by the closing time listed in the auction announcement. The times differ for competitive and non-competitive bids. I believe you can submit competitive bids through 3rd party brokerages like WF, but it is easier to just do a non-competitive bid unless you really know what you are doing. Treasuries are owned by the US Government, at a very high level you are loaning the government money, and they are paying you interest on top of the amount you loaned them, at the end of the specified term. In other words, it is the opposite of you getting a loan from a bank. Your bank/brokerage does not own the bill, you do, they are merely facilitating the transaction for you. All of your t-bills are backed “in full faith by the US government”, they are technically safer than any amount over $250k in a bank(which is required to be FDIC insured up to $250k). Say you had a $500k CD in a bank like SVB or FR that just went belly up, you’d get your $250k back but the remaining $250k would be at risk, not sure if you would be successful in getting that back. If you had that $500k in treasuries, none of it would be at risk. Once you buy, you are locked into that rate that you bought at. The value will not fluctuate, you’ve already bought it, it’s done. However, with a 3rd party brokerage like WF, you could possibly try to sell it before maturity, and that might get you a higher price if rates jumped way up since you bought. There is a market for buying/selling treasuries before maturity. It can be a gamble as you don’t really know what rate you are going to get, but if you look at the daily rate trend leading up to the auction date, you can get a pretty good idea of what rate you will get. Remember, since bills are short term so when you buy, you buy them at a “discount” which is set in the auction. So once the auction is done and they collect payment, they would collect less than the amount you bid at. $100 is the min purchase, so say you bought $100, there would be a price specified, like $98.78 or something. That would be debited from your funding source you pick when you purchase through WF brokerage, and once they reach maturity you get paid out a full $100. As with all treasuries, that $1.23 for this example(or however much the difference is between what you paid and what you bought) is taxable interest and taxable only at the federal level, it is exempt from state and local taxes. Now… Read more »

Aaron M
Aaron M (@guest_1611861)
May 4, 2023 12:49

8-week bills auctioned today at a high investment rate of 5.537%.

More significantly, 4-week bills auctioned at a high inv. rate of 5.964%. That’s not a typo.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/

jd
jd (@guest_1611996)
May 4, 2023 15:25

yeah, nobody wants them because, fiscal cliff