Every year I like to make a list of predictions, I just took a look at my predictions for 2018 and the results were ugly so here’s hoping I do a better job this year (or a worse job depending on the prediction and what we actually want to happen).
Other bloggers
Below is a list of other sites that have made predictions for 2019 in this space. If you’re a blogger and have made some predictions, let us know in the comments so I can add it here.
- Frequent Miler
- No Home Just Roam
- Milenomics
- Points Hogger (Canada)
- Proud Money (video)
- The Points Guy
- Traveling For Miles
- Windbag Miles
My Predictions For 2019
American Express Will Continue To Refresh Its Card Portfolio
American Express made some major changes to cards last year (e.g business gold, personal gold, business platinum). It’s already rumored that they will be making changes to the green card as well in early 2019. This trend will continue, this isn’t so much a prediction as I know it’s something American Express is heavily focusing on internally.
Focus Will Shift From Sign Up Bonuses To Ongoing Value Propositions
More and more focus is being put on lifetime customer value and trying to focus on acquiring long term profitable customers rather than just mass acquisition. This is another trend I think we will see continue, especially from American Express. Expect more category bonuses & monthly offers (e.g GrubHub credit). Don’t get me wrong, we will still see strong sign up bonuses because card issuers are hesitant to let new card member numbers drop too low.
Sign Up Bonus Rules Will Continue To Tighten, More Work Arounds Will Appear
I think it will become more and more difficult to get sign up bonuses from all of the major issuers. Last year saw the Chase 5/24 rule expanded and early 2019 we’ve already seen Bank of America introduce a new rule. I think we will see more rules/restrictions added, but I also think we will see more ways to by pass these rules as card issuers begin to experiment more with finding profitable customers that ‘fail’ those basic rules (think Chase in branch pre-approval offers).
Basic Savings Rates Will Hit 3% APY
Basic saving rates are currently at 2.5% APY, last year I said we’d see rates hit 2% APY and by the end of 2019 I suspect we will see rates hit 3% APY. When high yield savings rates start getting this high then we need to start considering how valuable 0% introductory APR + no balance transfer offers are as arbitrage becomes a real possibility.
Capital One Will Introduce A Premium Card
Think of something that competes with the Chase Sapphire Reserve/American Express platinum. Traditionally they have focused on those with no/bad/middle credit, but with the introduction of airline transfer partners I can see Capital One making a play for high value personal cardholders.
Final Thoughts
For once I’ve forbidden myself from making a prediction about mobile wallets, because it seems I’m incapable of getting that one right. I’m looking forward to seeing what 2019 brings, feel free to comment on the predictions I made or make your own in the comments below.
My prediction is that some brokerages (specifically M1 Finance and Robinhood) will allow customers to access their idle cash at least one additional way (beyond transfers). I’m thinking debit card, checks, or bill pay, with debit card being most likely.
Also, BIG thanks to all of this website’s managers for the hard work that you do. This site is a huge help when planning how to tackle bank and credit card bonuses, and much more!
William Charles
I predict that Discover will venture further into the Business CC market.
And that minor credit card companies will take advantage of the benefits that were taken off of Discover, Chase, Citi, etc. by introducing those benefits onto their cards. Hopefully to get a higher position in the market.
I’ve had a go at predicting the future here —> https://travelingformiles.com/my-predictions-for-2019-theres-good-and-bad-news-heading-our-way/ and I’m really hoping that I’m wrong with most! 🙂
By the way is it possible that Amex will buy off a smaller bank (like Santander) and have actual branches?
Maybe
My 2019 predictions:
(1) Amex will get stricter with Business cards and occasionally request business documents, (like BOA, Barclays and US Bank).
(2) Citi will finally launch their own Business card like a TY Premier or Prestige version.
(3) Chase will announce a 2x UR card on all purchases similar to Double Cash, Spark, Blue Plus but will have an annual fee.
(4) Hyatt will raise the 5K category 1 hotels to 6-7K.
(5) With the flooding of Priority Pass cards, Lounges will get stricter and add restrictions and limitations.
Chase and AmEx will hire larger RAT teams and figure out who posts on Reddit.
Chase is already the largest credit card issuer in the country. They will likely focus more on retention going forward than acquisition.
1. Chase will add 48 months language to more cards.
2. Amex will open a new charge card. With the rumored added benefits to the Green Card, I believe the AF will increase to around $150, and predict that they’ll open a new card with an AF around $95. (With maybe 1.5 MR/$1 spent.)
3. Chase will add grocery store purchases as a permanent bonus category to one of their cards (or a new one).
For the first prediction I hope to get a negative point. The other 2 might be wishful thinking.
I predict Amex will continue to add MR transfer partners to attempt to replace the loss of Starpoints
Last couple of days to cancel merc benz platinum. What do you think doc? Bonus clawback if closed within one year?
Don’t you have 30 days from the bill to cancel? Wouldn’t that put you at 12+ months?
I’m really curious, because I just did this with two Delta cards and plan to do the same with MB Platinum if I don’t receive a decent retention offer.
Yes, you do have at least 30 days to cancel after annual fee is billed.
It should not be “within one year” if you cancel after AF hits. You have 30 days to do that.
Just posted about this
Someone at Amex finally realized they have huge brand value in the Green/Gold/Platinum portfolio of cards. Cleaning up the whole Gold/PRG, BRG branding mess is a huge first step to fixing that but Amex Green IS the iconic card so a strong finish with it makes sense.
That same philosophy will probably turn to giant mess that is their Blue branding on the credit card side of things. I think we’ll see the first steps in fixing that and perhaps shifting Blue to an only biz line. Kill the remaining Blue Businesses, rebrand BB+ to “Blue for Business” or something similar. Kill the Old Blue Cash and the remaining basic Blues and Blue Skys that are floating around. Figure out some way to integrate Cash Magnet/Blue Cash/BCP into one or two Blue branded products.
Or, maybe kill Blue as a consumer product entirely and have the ED line for consumers.
Not gonna happen, unless they also add 1c / MR statement credit redemptions. People going for cashback and points are different class.